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Did Japan Hide Infected People for Tokyo Olympics 2020? #covid19

新型コロナウイルス

A useful thread to illustrate Japan's strategy

新型コロナウイルスに関して日本の検査数が少ないと言われている。Covid-19関連のトピックはいくつかあるが、そのなかでも検査の問題は科学や医療を離れ、いまや政治の領域で争っている。

There are several topics related to Covid-19, but among them, the issue of testing has left science and medicine and is now contested in the realm of politics.

It is said that the number of tests in Japan is low.

日本は東京オリンピック2020のために感染者を隠蔽したという疑惑を持たれている。

Japan is suspected of covering up the infected people for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.

日本が集団免疫戦略を採用したと誤解されてるかもしれない。

There may be a misunderstanding that Japan has adopted a population immunity strategy.

Hironori Funabikiのスレッドは日本の戦略を理解する助けになるだろう。

Hironori Funabiki's thread will help you understand Japan's strategy.

ここからは彼のスレッドに返信した私の個人的な見解と考察だ。下手な英語は笑って許してほしい。

Here are my personal thoughts and thoughts on replying to his thread. Please forgive me for my poor English.

Test, test, test might work in a small town.

WHOは疑い症例について検査を推奨している。テスト、テスト、テストだ。

The WHO recommends testing for suspected cases. Test, test, test.

WHOは韓国を成功例とし、他国にも真似するよう推奨している。

The WHO calls South Korea a success and encourages other countries to follow suit.

しかし、この戦略が全ての都市で有効かは疑問だ。

But I doubt that this strategy will work in all cities.

テスト、テスト、テストは小さな街でなら有効かもしれない。しかしながら、大都市では過剰な検査が医療資源を枯渇させる。

日本の人口は1億3000万人。東京には1400万人が住んでいる。優先順位の判断が重要だ。

Demographia World Urban Areas & Population Projections(PDF)

Test, test, test might work in a small cities. However, in large cities, over-testing drains medical resources.

The population of Japan is 130 million people. There are 14 million people living in Tokyo. It is important to determine your priorities.

新型コロナウイルス 社会的な距離

テストの数よりも重症者を受け入れる医療体制の充実こそが生死を分けると考える。テストの数が重要ならヨーロッパの苦境は説明できない。

I think the difference between life and death is more in the medical system that accepts critically ill people than in the number of tests. If the number of tests is paramount, that doesn't explain Europe's predicament.

人口密集率が高く、軽微な感染者が次々に見つかる大都市では、総感染者数を気にするよりも医療資源を温存して重症者に手厚い治療を施すべきだ。

In large cities with high population densities, where minor infections are found one after another, medical resources should be saved to treat the seriously ill rather than the total number of infections.

ニューヨークとロサンゼルスの状況を確認。

Check out the situation in New York and Los Angeles.

Health officials in New York City and Los Angeles County are signaling a change in local strategy when it comes to coronavirus testing, recommending that doctors avoid testing patients except in cases where a test result would significantly change the course of treatment.

A news release from the Los Angeles Department of Public Health this week advised doctors not to test those experiencing only mild respiratory symptoms unless “a diagnostic result will change clinical management or inform public health response.”

The recommendation reflects a "shifting from a strategy of case containment to slowing disease transmission and averting excess morbidity and mortality," according to the statement.

The guidance said coronavirus testing at L.A. County public health labs will prioritized those with symptoms, health care workers, residents of long-term care facilities, paramedics and other high-risk situations. Others are encouraged to simply stay at home.

At about the same time, the New York City Department of Health directed all healthcare facilities to immediately stop testing non-hospitalized patients for Covid-19.

Special medical environment in Japan

日本のCTスキャン台数はとにかく多い。そして国民皆保険で誰もが安価に医療を受けられる。小さな診療所でもCTスキャンが撮れるのは驚きだ。

There are a crazy number of CT scans in Japan. And With universal health insurance, everyone can receive medical care at a low cost. Smaller clinics can also receive CT scans. It's amazing.

誰が重篤な肺炎を発症しているか画像診断しやすい環境といえる。

It's an environment where it's easy to make an imaging diagnosis of who has serious pneumonia.

これは誰がCovid-19の検査を必要としている"疑い症例"か適切に判断するのに役立つ。

This will help you properly determine who is a "suspected case" that needs to be tested for Covid-19.

しかし、日本はまだピークを迎えていない。成功は今後の努力次第だ。ここでの最終判断は控えよう。

However, Japan has not yet reached its peak. Success will depend on future efforts. I'll refrain from making a final decision here.

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